950 hands, +2289.56
Put in a solid grind today. Was up a solid amount early but the tables were good so I kept on grinding. Put a really sick beat on a guy in a 3.6 buy-in pot at 5/10, though in my defense, I think I played it fine as well. I played really solid today for my 8th straight winning session. I'm really turning the month around and I'm getting more and more comfortable at 5/10.
Key to winning is running this good. In fairness he was pretty LAG today and he's repping a range that mostly includes draws. Despite the fact that I'm repping a strong range and he's still willing to put his stack in, I don't think I can get away from this here:
Sick Beat at 5/10
Weeeeeee Hand Reading
Weeeeeee Hand Reading Part Two. Repping nothing will not work vs me!
Do we like or dislike this? Obviously not for value (I never get looked up in this spot when I have a hand):
River Overbet
Brett
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3 comments:
Why is he repping nothing in Wee hand reading Part 2?
Because his preflop calling range likely does not include KT or 8T and even if those hands were in his range, he probably wouldn't go for a turn check raise with them. There's a fair chance he'd raise the flop, and once I check back the flop, I'm pretty certain he'd lead the turn. When I check back this flop, it's fairly likely I have a pretty weak hand and I'm probably going to try to check down a fair amount of the time. From his perspective, it does not look like I'm going to bet, and I'm unlikely to call a check/raise, thus I doubt he would check/raise a big hand here. Since I likely have a weak hand that can't stand a lot of heat, he's going to bluff or semi-bluff a fair amount of the time in this spot. Thus I can call down light.
Ok. And FWIW, he'd probably lead the turn if he had a set or two pair (although 2 pair hands are less likely calling OOP in the blinds).
What's your plan if villain leads the turn? Call-call, partly based on the same range analysis? KT/T8/J9/Q9/79 seem unlikely. Thus range is polarized toward semibluffs/air and 77 (maybe 99). Yes?
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